تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر آینده اعتماد عمومی به دولت جمهوری اسلامی ایران در افق 1424: ارائه یک الگو

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آینده پژوهی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی ره، قزوین، ایران.

2 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)

3 استادیار، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران

4 استادیار دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)

چکیده

هدف: اعتماد عمومی به دولت و روند آینده آن از مسائل مهمی است که عدم شناخت و توجه به عوامل مؤثر بر آن می­تواند پیامدهای بسیار مخربی برای دولت­ها داشته باشد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر آینده اعتماد عمومی به دولت جمهوری اسلامی ایران­ و تحلیل شبکه روابط علت و معلولی میان این عوامل با در نظر گرفتن افق 1424 انجام گرفته است.
روش: در این پژوهش از تکنیک دیمتل فازی استفاده گردید. برای گردآوری داده­ها از نظر خبرگان که از طریق نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شده بودند، استفاده شد. پس از شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر آینده اعتماد عمومی به دولت از دل پیشینه موضوع، برای تحلیل وضعیت روابط علّی میان این عوامل از فن دیمتل فازی بهره­گیری شد.
یافته­ها: نتایج نشان داد که از میان 16 عامل استخراج‌شده از ادبیات، عدالت اجتماعی بنیادی­ترین عامل در سامانه عوامل مؤثر بر اعتماد عمومی به دولت ج. ا. ایران محسوب می­شود و ایجاد تغییرات سازنده در آن می­تواند به تحولات جدی­تری در جهت بهبود آینده اعتماد عمومی به دولت منجر شود. همچنین دو عامل شایسته­سالاری و شفافیت، اثرگذارترین عوامل در میان دیگر عوامل مؤثر بر آینده اعتماد عمومی به دولت بوده و در نقطه مقابل، اثرپذیرترین شاخص، کیفیت ارائه خدمات عمومی است.
نتیجه­گیری: با توجه به نتایج تحقیق بایسته است که دولت در عمل بر استقرار عدالت اجتماعی همت گماشته، بر رعایت شایسته­سالاری در به‌کارگیری و انتصاب افراد تاکید کرده و به اجرای قوانین مربوط به شفافیت در اداره امور عمومی اهتمام ویژه­ای داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Effective Factors on Future of Public Trust in Government of I. R. Iran in 2045: Offering a Pattern

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Montazeri 1
  • null null 2
  • Einollah Keshavarz Tork 3
  • Mohammad Reza Solhju 4
1 Ph.d student of futures studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2
3 Assistant Professor, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Imam Khomeini International University, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Purpose: Public trust in government and its future trend is one of the important issues for governments that lack of recognition and attention to its effective factors can have destructive consequences for the government over time. In this regard, the present study has tried to explore effective factors on future of public trust in government of Islamic Republic of Iran, and the analysis of their causal interrelationship network.
Method: In this research we used Fuzzy DEMATEL technique. In order to collect data we used the viewpoints of experts which selected by purposeful sampling. After identifying effective factors on future of public trust in government from the literature, Fuzzy DEMATEL technique was used to determine the status of causal relations among these factors.
Findings: The results of data analysis showed that among the extracted factors from literature, social justice is the most fundamental factor and making constructive changes in it, can lead to more serious changes in the future of public trust in government in Iran. Also, public managers and employees' competency and transparency in government are the most important factors in the future of public trust and at the opposite point is the quality of public service.
Conclusion: According these results, the government must emphasize on social justice and competency and merit in applying and appointing people and do its best efforts to implement laws related to transparency in public affairs administration.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Public Trust in Government
  • Future of Public Trust
  • Government of I. R. Iran
  • Fuzzy DEMATEL

مراجع

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