Urban Forecasting As An Approach To Urban Policy And Planning (With Emphasis on Tehran Foresight)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

2 Ph.D in Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of the foresight as a new paradigm in urban planning. In order to highlight this goal, in addition to pointing out theoretical perspectives and paradigmatic developments, Tehran's foresight activity findings also confirm the importance of foresight.
Method: In order to identify the major impacts and essential drivers, methodologically, an environmental scanning model based on specialized panels (with a presence of 210 participants), internal foresight experiences, and a comprehensive understanding of national trends were used. In the next step, using the Delphi method and cross-effects analysis, key factors were identified.
Findings: The social and widespread presence of women, aging and increasing life expectancy, smart life and management, diversity in life styles and climate instability will be the definitive trends of Tehran over the next 15 years. However, along with the great macroeconomic trends, the three influential factors affecting the future of Tehran, which will result in five possible scenarios, are: the status of international relations of Iran with other countries; the status of political stability and relations between key domestic actors; the development situation in different regions of the country.
Conclusion: Combination of different modes of driving forces, different scenarios and images of Tehran possible future are extracted. Using the foresight findings, in addition to adopting a large-scale strategy, short-term plans and plans tailored to the macro strategy can be designed and implemented with greater readiness.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 4, Issue 1 - Serial Number 6
September 2019
Pages 51-69

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