The Wild-Cards and Driver Forces of Iran-US Relations in 2029

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Law & Political & Foreign Languages, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran

2 Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Law & Political & Foreign Languages, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

purpose:This study aimed at using Futures methods to identify the wild cards and driver forces of the Iran-US relations in 1408 horizon. The purpose to identify the wild cards is to prevent future surprise since wild cards are events with low probability of occurrence but high impacts. The purpose of identifying the Driver Forces of the Iran-US relations was identifying the key factors in this issue, which can cause diverse futures in the two countries.
Method: The methodology used in the present study was descriptive-analytical and data collection in theoretical part was through bibliographic sources and, in analytical part, through questionnaires. The data were analyzed by SPSS and Mic Mac.
Findings:According the findings of the present study, the military attack to Iran, the transformation in the two countries' definition of human rights, the role of Iran's geo-culture, the future role of the leadership structure in Iran, the role of pressure and extremist factions in Iran, and the impact of Iran's role in resolving the Syrian case were considered as probable wild cards.
Conclusion: Regarding the identified Driver Forces, they are categorized in eight topics: the role of intergovernmental bodies, countries disturbing the relations, the roles of leaders of the two countries, the future the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capability and Iran's missile program, the role of geography of the two countries, and the historical background of the two countries' relations.

Keywords

References

  1. Asan, S.S. (2007). "Qualitative Cross-impact analysis with time consideration", Technological forecasting and social change, Vol 74, 627-644.
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  3. Bipe Conseil: Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, and Institute for the Future (1992). Wild Cards: A Multinational Perspective, Institute for the Future.
  4. Jafari Movahed, Hossein (2015) “Iran-US Relationships: Feasibility or Refusal?” Journal of Foreign Policy, No. 3, 104 – 131.(in Persian)
  5. Heydari, Gholamhossein (2005) “Cultural Geopolitics or Geoculture”, Journal of Geopolitics, special issue for spring, 93-116. (in Persian)
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  7. Dehghani Firoozabadi, Seyyed Jalal (2015b) “Principles and Foundations of International Relationships” 6th edition, The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities, Tehran. (in Persian)
  8. John (1997), The Wild Cards in our Future: Preparing for the Improbable, Futurist. July – August, 43-47.
  9. Rafie, Hossein (2008) “Encyclopedia of Geopolitics and Geostrategy in the World of Information (with an emphasis on Iran)” Quarterly Journal of the Politics, 7. (in Persian)
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  11. Ghanbari, Loghman (2017) “Diplomacy on Energy and Economic Development” Journal of Foreign Policy, Vol. 31, No. 4, 181 – 208.(in Persian)
  12. Ghavam, Abdolali (1993) Principles of Foreign Policy and International Politics, The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities, Tehran. (in Persian)
  13. Kordnaeij, Asadollah (2006) “Role of Pressure Parties in Forming Public Policies” Journal of Organizational Culture Management, No. 12, 65 – 82.(in Persian)
  14. Glenn, Jerome C.; Gordon, Theodore J. (2009) Futures Research Methodology Version 3, Editorial desconocida ,Translated by M. Keyghobadi and F. Malekifar, Volume 1, Published by Tisa Pub., Tehran.(in Persian)
  15. Godet, M. (1991). From anticipation to action, Paris: UNESCO publishing.
  16. Godet, M. (2008). Strategic Foresight, Paris Lipsor Working Paper.
  17. Steinmüller, A., Steinmüller, K., (2004), Wild Cards, Wen Das Unwahrscheinliche Eintritt, Humburg: Murmann.
  18. Mohammadi-Lord, Abdolmahmood (2016) Future Study of Political Stability in Iran, Research Institute of Strategic Studies Pub., Tehran.(in Persian)
  19. Mosavian, Seyyed Hossein (2014) Iran and US: the Failed Past and the Route to Reconciliation, Tisa Pub., Tehran. (in Persian)
  20. Editorial at Azma Magazine (1999). Pressure Groups: A Close-up View, Azma Magazine, No. 4, 4-6.
  21. Mojtahedzadeh, Pirooz (2000). Geopolitical Ideas and Realities of Iran, Ney Pub, Tehran. (in Persian)

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References

  1. Asan, S.S. (2007). "Qualitative Cross-impact analysis with time consideration", Technological forecasting and social change, Vol 74, 627-644.
  2. Bell, Wendell (2004), Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era: History, Purposes, Knowledge (Human Science for a New Era Series), Vol. 1, Transaction Publishers, 2011, Translated to Farsi by M. Taghavi and M. Mohaghegh, Published by Center for Future Studies on Defense Science and Technology at Training and Research Institute of Defense Industry in 2013.(in Persian)
  3. Bipe Conseil: Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, and Institute for the Future (1992). Wild Cards: A Multinational Perspective, Institute for the Future.
  4. Jafari Movahed, Hossein (2015) “Iran-US Relationships: Feasibility or Refusal?” Journal of Foreign Policy, No. 3, 104 – 131.(in Persian)
  5. Heydari, Gholamhossein (2005) “Cultural Geopolitics or Geoculture”, Journal of Geopolitics, special issue for spring, 93-116. (in Persian)
  6. Dehghani Firoozabadi, Seyyed Jalal (2015a) “Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran” 6th edition, The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities, Tehran. (in Persian)
  7. Dehghani Firoozabadi, Seyyed Jalal (2015b) “Principles and Foundations of International Relationships” 6th edition, The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities, Tehran. (in Persian)
  8. John (1997), The Wild Cards in our Future: Preparing for the Improbable, Futurist. July – August, 43-47.
  9. Rafie, Hossein (2008) “Encyclopedia of Geopolitics and Geostrategy in the World of Information (with an emphasis on Iran)” Quarterly Journal of the Politics, 7. (in Persian)
  10. Sadati Nejad, Seyyed Mahdi, Tarkarani, Afshin (2014) “An Investigation into the Islamic Revolution of Iran – US Conflicts on Humanity Issues Based on Realism and Constructionism Approaches” Quarterly Journal of the Islamic Revolution Research, No. 11, 61-80.(in Persian)
  11. Ghanbari, Loghman (2017) “Diplomacy on Energy and Economic Development” Journal of Foreign Policy, Vol. 31, No. 4, 181 – 208.(in Persian)
  12. Ghavam, Abdolali (1993) Principles of Foreign Policy and International Politics, The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities, Tehran. (in Persian)
  13. Kordnaeij, Asadollah (2006) “Role of Pressure Parties in Forming Public Policies” Journal of Organizational Culture Management, No. 12, 65 – 82.(in Persian)
  14. Glenn, Jerome C.; Gordon, Theodore J. (2009) Futures Research Methodology Version 3, Editorial desconocida ,Translated by M. Keyghobadi and F. Malekifar, Volume 1, Published by Tisa Pub., Tehran.(in Persian)
  15. Godet, M. (1991). From anticipation to action, Paris: UNESCO publishing.
  16. Godet, M. (2008). Strategic Foresight, Paris Lipsor Working Paper.
  17. Steinmüller, A., Steinmüller, K., (2004), Wild Cards, Wen Das Unwahrscheinliche Eintritt, Humburg: Murmann.
  18. Mohammadi-Lord, Abdolmahmood (2016) Future Study of Political Stability in Iran, Research Institute of Strategic Studies Pub., Tehran.(in Persian)
  19. Mosavian, Seyyed Hossein (2014) Iran and US: the Failed Past and the Route to Reconciliation, Tisa Pub., Tehran. (in Persian)
  20. Editorial at Azma Magazine (1999). Pressure Groups: A Close-up View, Azma Magazine, No. 4, 4-6.
  21. Mojtahedzadeh, Pirooz (2000). Geopolitical Ideas and Realities of Iran, Ney Pub, Tehran. (in Persian)
Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 4, Issue 1 - Serial Number 6
September 2019
Pages 117-140

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