Developing a Model for predicting the future of Iranian banking industry based on risk management(PLS approach).

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Accounting, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad university, Bonab. Iran

2 Corresponding author: Associate Prof., Department of Accounting, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran

3 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran

4 Associate Prof., Department of Financial Managment,Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Purpose: The main purpose of the present study was to provide a model for predicting the future (efficiency and performance) of Iranian banking industry based on risk management through examining the impact of risk management dimensions (determining risk and appetite risk, formulating and executing risk strategy, internal evaluation, planning and Crisis Testing, Reporting and Transparency) on the future performance and efficiency of the Iranian banking industry.

 Method: In order to achieve the purpose of the study, managers of all banks listed in Tehran Stock Exchange were selected and studied. The causal approach was used to estimate the models and test the research hypotheses.
Results: The results of the hypothesis testing showed that that internal evaluation, planning and crisis test had a significant effect on the efficiency and performance of banks. Also, there was a significant effect of stockpiling and risk appetite on bank performance.
Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that the structure of warehousing and risk appetite is an increasing factor in the optimal performance and efficiency of banks. The banking system's structural problems must be resolved in order for the banking system to perform well and develop in the future. Therefore, the strategic proposals for resolving the crisis of the banking system, however, must go the way of resolving the structural problems. In the future, the banking system is in worse shape than it is now, and banks are not in a good position to manage risk.
 
 

Keywords

References

References
1.Adams.B. A.Kenneth. C, Perry. T, (2009), "Earnings management and initial public offerings: The case of the depository industry", journal of Banking & finance، 33، 2363- 2372.
2.Adrian .Blundell-wignall and Paul Atkinson, "Thinking beyond basel III : Necessary Solutions for capital and liquidity, OECD journal",  Financial market trends volume 2010.
3.Almazari, A.A. (2014). "Financial Performance Analysis of the Jordanian Arab Bank by Using the DuPont System of Financial Analysis", International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(4): 86-94.
4.Almumani, M.A. (2013). "Impact of Managerial Factors on Commercial Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Jordan", International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(3): 298–310.
5.Basel III , A Risk Management Perspective May 5 , 2010.
6.Cohen,D. A, Dey, T. Lys, (2008), "Real and accrual-based Earnings Management in the pre-and post- Sarbanes-Oxley periods". The Accounting Review 83 (3): pp. 757–787.
7.Cornish, E. (2004). "Futuring: The exploration of the future". World Future Society.
8.godet, m., & roubelat, f. (1996). "creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios". long range planning, 29 (2), 164–171.
9.Keneth katzman (2018). "Iran Sanctions. Federation of American Scientists, Congressional Research Service".
10.     Laksmana, I. Yang. Y, (2014), "Product market competition and earnings management: Evidence from discretionary accruals and real activity manipulation", Advances in Accounting, incorporating Advances in International Accounting, 1-12.
11.     Lee, J., Park, S. Y., Baek, I. & Lee, C. S. (2008). "Theimpact of the brand management system on brand performance in B–B and B–C environments".Industrial marketing management.855-848,(7)37.
12.     Li ang, L. W., Cheng, C. P., & Lin, Y. P. (2015). "A Study of the Relationship between Bank SurvivalandCostEfficiency".Journal of Finance, 3(2), pp. 35-47.
13.     Lin, H. F. (2007). "Predicting consumerintentions to shop online: An empirical testof competing theories". ElectronicCommerce Research and Applications, No. 6, pp. 433-442.
14.     Liu x. "Systemic Risk of Commercial Bank: A markov – Switching Quantile Auto regression Approach". Journal of Finance. May 4. 2014.
15.     Liu, M. and Wysocki, P, (2007),"Cross-sectional determinants of information quality proxies and cost of capital measures", Working paper, Pennsylvania State University.
16.     Lu. Ying, Gan. Christopher, Hu. Baiding, Toh. Moau & Cohen. D, (2018), "BankefficiencyinNewZealand: astochastic frontierapproach", NEW ZEALAND ECONOMIC PAPERS, https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.
17.     lynch, m. d. (2005). "developing a scenario-based training program".  fbi law enforcement bulletin, 74(10), 1–8.
18.     Mahmood, T(2000). "Survival of Newly Founded Businesses: A Log-Logistic Model  Approach". Small Business Economics, 14(3), pp. 223-237.
19.     Mohammad Bitar, Kuntara Pukthuanthong and Thomas Walker(2018), "The effect of capital ratios on the risk, efficiency and profitability of banks:  Evidence from OECD countries",  journal of international financial markets institutions and money . volum53,pages 227-262
20.     Mongi Lassoued, (2018) "Corporate governance and financial stability in Islamic banking", Managerial Finance, https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-12-2016-0370
21.     Pouraghajan.A, Yadollahzadeh.N, Emamgholipour.M, Mansourian.E, (2013), "the Effect of Audit Quality on Earnings Management: Evidence from Iran", International Journal of Basic Sciences & Applied Research. Vol., 2 (4), 399-404.
22.     Sohail Inayatullah (2013). "Futures Studies: Theories and Methods", WORLD FUTURES STUDIES FEDERATION.
23.     Yitzhak, G., Yair, M. (2011). "The Economic Impact of International Sanctions on Iran. The Eleventh Annual Herzliya Conference", The Institute for Policy and Strategy.
24.     Yun J. )2014(,"measuring Systemic risk in the Korean banking sector". Journal of Pacific finance.. Volume 27. Pp.94-114.  
25.     Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Song, J., & Cheng, L. (2018). "Evaluating relative merits of fourbaseflow separation methods in Eastern Australia". Journal of hydrology, 549, 252-263
26.     Zins, Alexandra & Weill, Laurent(2017)" , Islamicbankingandrisk: the impactofbasel,2Pacific-BasinFinancialJournal.
27.     Hemati. H, Kazemi. H & Rostami. Z, (2012), "The Impact of Corporate Strategic System Mechanisms on Financial Performance and Information Transparency", Management Information System Quarterly, 2(2), 123-148(in Persian).
28.     Mehrgan. M & Shahbndadeh. H, (2015), "Providing a Method for Evaluating Bank Branch Performance Using Multi-attribute Decision Making Technique", Financial Research Quarterly, (20) 107-124(in Persian).
29.     Mahdavi. G & Alizadeh. , (2015), "Investigating the Relationship between Corporate Governance and Voluntary Disclosure Level in Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange", Accounting Advances,, 7(1) 203-230(in Persian).
30.     Sefati. F, Torabi. T & Kiyani. K, (2017), "Investigation of Economic Scale Efficiency Changes in Public and Private Banks Using Random Border Production Function Method", Financial Studies, (35), 19-33(in Persian).
31.     Shabahang. R & Borhani. H, (2009), "Performance Evaluation in Commercial Banks of Iran and its Relationship with Organizational and Financial Dimensions", Quarterly Journal of Management Studies, 2(10) 49-64(in Persian).
32.     Shahchera. M, (2017), "Changes in Wing Committee Rules", New to Economics, (8), 129(in Persian).
33.     Rahimaian. N, Mohamadi. H & Salehi. M, (2013), "The Role of Corporate Governance Mechanisms in Bank Performance",  Accounting Review, 1(1), 97-119(in Persian).
34.     Davari. A & Rezazadeh. A, (2014), "Modeling structural equations with PLS software", Second edition, Tehran, Academic Jihad Publications(in Persian).
35.     Khoshnod. Z & Esfandyari. M, (2014), "Bank Lending and Capital Adequacy: A Comparison of Public and Private Banks in Iran", Monetary Banking Research, 7(20), 211-235(in Persian).
36.     Heydari. M, Ebrahimi. Babak & Mohebi.N, (2017), "Credit Risk Modeling of Bank Credit Facility Portfolio Using Actuator Modeling (Case Study: Refah Bank)", Financial Studies, (34), 55-71(in Persian).
37.     Tohidinia. A & Nasiri.M, (2018), "The Necessity or No Need to Adhere to Capital Adequacy Requirements in Non-Prudential Banking: Opposing Views, Development Strategy", Development Strategy, 4(187), 21-55(in Persian).
38.     Taginataj. G, Bahri.J & Ghaderi.G, (2018), "The Impact of Corporate Governance Quality on Banking Performance with Moderation of Disclosure Quality", Quarterly Journal of Islamic Financial and Banking Studies, Islamic Financial and Banking Studies Quarterly, 4(8), 127-151(in Persian).
39.     Tagavi. M, Ahmadian. A & Kiyanvand.M, (2013), "Analysis of Corporate Governance Tire on Stability of Developing Countries Banking System with Emphasis on Banks Ownership Index Analytical Study on Corporate Governance Tire on Developing Countries Banking System Stability with Emphasis on Banks Ownership Index", Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 6(19), 45-66(in Persian).
40.     Pakmaram. A, Rashidian. M & Beygzade. J, (2014), "The Relationship between State Ownership and Conditional Accounting Conservatism in Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange", Accounting Research, 2(14), 88-94(in Persian).
41.     Bolo.G, Maham.K & Godarzi.E, (2010), "Changing Independent Auditor and Information Transparency of Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange",Accounting Review, 1(1),111-135(in Persian).
Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 4, Issue 1 - Serial Number 6
September 2019
Pages 289-312

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics