Scenarios ahead the Islamic Republic of Iran towards JCPOA after the US withdrawal

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Academic Board, Department of International Relations, School of International Relations

2 Holder of MA in Regional Studies, School of International Relations

Abstract

Purpose:  The main purpose of this article is to examine the scenarios facing the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the withdrawal of the United States from JCPOA. The authors try to analyze each of the scenarios using theoretical approaches in international relations in order to examine the best scenario for the future of JCPOA.
Method: The present research method is futuristic scenario-making, which is in the line with analytical and quasi-experimental studies. The main question of the present study is that among the scenarios of leaving JCPOA, negotiating with the United States to reconsider nuclear agreement, staying or returning the United States to JCPOA, which is possible, probable, justified and desirable?
Findings: The findings of this study include: negotiations with the United States on the revision of the JCPOA based on the Grossian view as the possible scenario; staying in JCPOA based on Kant's view as the probable scenario; gradual exit from JCPOA based on Hobbes's view as the justified scenario; and the return of the United States to the JCPOA and the fulfillment of Europe's economic and banking obligations based on the perspective of neo-functionalism as the desired scenario.   
Results: Finally, it can be concluded that, given the US withdrawal, the justified scenario enjoys more utility; Going through gradual exit from JCPOA, I.R. Iran can give the European Union and the United States the opportunity to fulfill their obligations and return to JCPOA, on the one hand, and can restart its nuclear facilities with the least pressure, on the other hand. 

 

Keywords

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 5, Issue 1 - Serial Number 8
September 2020
Pages 163-187

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