Participative Urban Foresight: Findings from an Event Ethnography in Isfahan

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Industrial Engineering and Futures Studies, University of Isfahan, Iran

2 M.S. Student in Industrial Engineering (Futures Studies), University of Isfahan, Iran

Abstract

Objective: The irreplaceable role of cities in economic, cultural and political development of countries, their challenges and problems and the difficulty of their management has resulted in an increasing significance of theories, experiences and strategies concerning city transformation. In the relevant literature, numerous concepts and approaches try to offer images of future of cities. One of these concepts is smart cities. Also, participative foresight can play a role in creating future images of cities. This study seeks to offer recommendations on how to create local and brand-new images of futures of cities in Iran and improve the quality of urban foresight practices.
Method: A thick report of an event ethnography has been given from a foresight workshop conducted in Isfahan municipality about futures of Isfahan, 1420, based on observations, field notes by ethnographers and the theoretical interpretation of them.
Findings: Utilization of participative deliberation and foresight techniques and event ethnography to create images of future is the innovative dimension of this paper.
Conclusion: Adding materiality to future, deconstruction of technological utopianism discourse, conceptualization of foresight as a social capacity deriving from civic epistemologies and agonism, moving beyond used futures, and creation of neologisms can improve urban foresight practices.
 

Keywords


 Abbas, H., Shaheen, S., & Amin, M. (2019). Engineering Large Complex Critical Infrastructures of Future Smart Cities as Self-adaptive Systems. In Security in Smart Cities: Models, Applications, and Challenges (pp. 143-170): Springer.
 Ahlers, D., Driscoll, P., Löfström, E., Krogstie, J., & Wyckmans, A. (2016). Understanding smart cities as social machines. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 25th International Conference Companion on World Wide Web.
Ahvenniemi, H., Huovila, A., Pinto-Seppä, I., & Airaksinen, M. (2017). What are the differences between sustainable and smart cities? Cities, 60, 234-245.
Al Nuaimi, E., Al Neyadi, H., Mohamed, N., & Al-Jaroodi, J. (2015). Applications of big data to smart cities. Journal of Internet Services and Applications, 6(1), 25.
Alavi, A. H., Jiao, P., Buttlar, W. G., & Lajnef, N. (2018). Internet of Things-enabled smart cities: State-of-the-art and future trends. Measurement, 129, 589-606.
Albino, V., Berardi, U., & Dangelico, R. (2015). Smart Cities: Definitions, Dimensions, Performance, and Initiatives. Journal of urban technology, 22, 2015.
Allam, Z., & Newman, P. (2018). Redefining the smart city: Culture, metabolism and governance. Smart Cities, 1(1), 4-25.
Amanaji, A. (2018). 5 Top Trends in the Transportation Industry in 2018. Retrieved from https://blog.marketresearch.com/5-top-trends-in-the-transportation-industry-in-2018
Andreani, S., Kalchschmidt, M., Pinto, R., & Sayegh, A. (2019). Reframing technologically enhanced urban scenarios: A design research model towards human centered smart cities. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 142, 15-25.
Anthopoulos, L. G., & Reddick, C. G. (2016). Understanding electronic government research and smart city: A framework and empirical evidence. Information Polity, 21(1), 99-117.
ATIS. (2017). Smart cities,Technology roadmap. Retrieved from Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS).
Bakıcı, T., Almirall, E., & Wareham, J. (2012). A Smart City Initiative: The Case of Barcelona. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 2(1), 1-14.
Beck, a. (2018). smart urban development. Retrieved from https://anz.smartcitiescouncil.com/resources/guidance-note-smart-urban-development.
Bencardino, M., & Greco, I. (2014). Smart communities. Social innovation at the service of the smart cities. TeMA-Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment.
Berardi, U. (2013). Berardi. Clarifying the new interpretations of the concept of sustainable building, 72–78.
Bibri, S. E., & Krogstie, J. (2017). Smart sustainable cities of the future: An extensive interdisciplinary literature review. Sustainable Cities and Society, 31, 183-212.
Bibri, S. E., & Krogstie, J. (2019a). A scholarly backcasting approach to a novel model for smart sustainable cities of the future: strategic problem orientation. City, Territory and Architecture, 6(1), 3.
Bibri, S. E., & Krogstie, J. (2019b). Towards A Novel Model for Smart Sustainable City Planning and Development: A Scholarly Backcasting Approach. Journal of Futures Studies, 24(1), 45-62.
Birkby, J. (2016). Vertical Farming. ATTRA Sustainable Agriculture Program, 1(12).
Biswas, K., & Muthukkumarasamy, V. (2016). Securing smart cities using blockchain technology. Paper presented at the 2016 IEEE 18th international conference on high performance computing and communications; IEEE 14th international conference on smart city; IEEE 2nd international conference on data science and systems (HPCC/SmartCity/DSS).
Blackwell, A. F., Phaal, R., Eppler, M., & Crilly, N. (2008). Strategy roadmaps: new forms, new practices. Paper presented at the International Conference on Theory and Application of Diagrams.
Bouzguenda, I., Alalouch, C., & Fava, N. (2019). Towards smart sustainable cities: A review of the role digital citizen participation could play in advancing social sustainability. Sustainable Cities and Society, 50.
Briggs, B., & Buchholz, S. (2019). Tech Trends 2019. Retrieved from https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/tech-trends/2019/executive-summary.html.
Briso-Rodríguez, C., Guan, K., Matolak, D. W., & Berbineau, M. (2019). Guest Editorial Special Section on Smart Rail Mobility: Communications, Signaling, and Emerging Technologies. IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, 68(3), 2021-2023.
Caragliu, A., & Del Bo, C. F. (2019). Smart innovative cities: The impact of Smart City policies on urban innovation. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 142, 373-383.
Caragliu, A., Del Bo, C. F., & Nijkamp, P. (2011). Smart Cities in Europe. Journal of urban technology, 18:2, 65-82.
Carbeck, J. (2019). Top 10 emerging technologies of 2019. Retrieved from Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/.
Chandrawati, R., & Meyerson, B. S. (2019). Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2019. Retrieved from Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/.
Chatterjee, S., Kar, A. K., & Gupta, M. P. (2018). Success of IoT in smart cities of India: An empirical analysis. Government Information Quarterly, 35(3), 349–361.
 Daffara, P. (2004). Macrohistory and city futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 9(1), 13-30.
Dameri, R. P. (2013). Searching for smart city definition: a comprehensive proposal. international Journal of computers & technology, 11(5), 2544-2551.
Davies, S. R., Selin, C., Rodegher, S., Allende, C. A., Burnam-Fink, M., DiVittorio, C., . . . Liao, M. (2015). Studying Emerge: Findings from an event ethnography. Futures, 70, 75-85.
Deakin, M., & Waer, H. A. (2017). From Intelligent to Smart Cities.
Douglas, S. J. (1990). Technology and Society. [The Social Construction of Technological Systems: New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, Wiebe E. Bijker, Thomas P. Hughes, Trevor Pinch]. Isis, 81(1), 80-83.
Dufva, M., & Ahlqvist, T. (2015). Knowledge creation dynamics in foresight: A knowledge typology and exploratory method to analyse foresight workshops. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 94, 251-268.
Dufvaa, T., & Dufvab, M. (2019). Grasping the future of the digital society. science direct.
Edmonton, c. o. (2017). Smart City strategy of edmonton. Retrieved from https://www.gov.edmonton.ab.ca/city_government/documents/PDF/Smart_City_Strategy.pdf.
Effing, R., & Groot, B. P. (2016). Social smart city: introducing digital and social strategies for participatory governance in smart cities. Paper presented at the International Conference on Electronic Government.
Emmer, M. (2018). 19 Trends That Will Shape The World In 2019. Retrieved from Forbes Los Angeles Business Council: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbeslacouncil/2018/12/14/19-trends-that-will-shape-the-world-in-2019/#4297585a3b45.
Estes, A. C. (2015). 3D-Printed Guns Are Only Getting Better, and Scarier. Retrieved from https://gizmodo.com/3d-printed-guns-are-only-getting-better-and-scarier-1677747439.
EuropeanCommission. (2014). Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/2030/index_en.htm.
Farahat, I., Tolba, A., Elhoseny, M., & Eladrosy, W. (2019). Data security and challenges in smart cities. In Security in Smart Cities: Models, Applications, and Challenges (pp. 117-142): Springer.
Fischetti, M. (2019). Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2019. Retrieved from Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/.
Gascó-Hernandez, M. (2018). Building a smart city: Lessons from barcelona. Communications of the ACM, 61(4), 50–57.
Ghalich, M., Mirzaie, H., Rabani, Taha. (2019). Urban Forecasting as An Approach to Urban Policy and Planning (With Emphasis on Tehran Foresight). Journal of Iran Futures Studies.14(1), 51-69. (In Persian)
Ghorban por, M., Molavi, M., Zali, N. (2019). Evaluation of environmental dimensions affecting the realization of sustainable tourism (Case study: Zarchoob river in Rasht). Journal of Tourism Management Studies. 14(47). (In Persian)
Guy, S., & Marvin, S. (1999). Understanding sustainable cities: competing urban futures. European Urban and Regional Studies, 6(3), 268-275.
Hammer, S., Kamal-Chaoui, L., Robert, A., & Plouin, M. (2011). Cities and Green Growth: A Conceptual Framework. OECD Regional Development Working.
Hatami, A., Sasan por, F., Ziparo, A., Soleimani, M. (2020). Sustainable Smart City: Concepts, Dimensions and Features. Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences. 21(60), 315-339. (In Persian)
Höjer, M., & Wangel, J. (2015). Smart sustainable cities: definition and challenges. In ICT innovations for sustainability (pp. 333-349): Springer.
Huang, K., Zhang, X., & Wang, X. (2017). Block-level message-locked encryption with polynomial commitment for IoT data. Journal of Information Science and Engineering, 33(4), 891–905.
Inayatullah, S. (2002). Layered methodology: meanings, epistemes and the politics of knowledge. Futures, 34(6), 479-491.
Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. foresight, 10(1), 4-21.
Ismagilova, E., Hughes, L., Dwivedi, Y. K., & Raman, K. R. (2019). Smart cities: Advances in research—An information systems perspective. International Journal of Information Management, 47, 88-100.
Ivars-Baidal, J. A., Celdrán-Bernabeu, M. A., Mazón, J.-N., & Perles-Ivars, Á. F. (2019). Smart destinations and the evolution of ICTs: a new scenario for destination management? Current Issues in Tourism, 22(13), 1581-1600.
Jungk, R., & Müllert, N. (1987). Future Workshops: How to create desirable futures: Institute for Social Inventions London.
Kemmis, S. (2006). Participatory action research and the public sphere. Educational action research, 14(4), 459-476.
Kemmis, S., McTaggart, R., & Nixon, R. (2013). The action research planner: Doing critical participatory action research: Springer Science & Business Media.
Kerr, C., Farrukh, C., Phaal, R., & Probert, D. (2013). Key principles for developing industrially relevant strategic technology management toolkits. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(6), 1050-1070.
Khatoun, R., & Zeadally, S. (2016). Smart cities: Concepts, architectures, research opportunities. Commun. Acm, 59(8), 46-57.
Kourtit, K., Nijkamp, P., & Arribas, D. (2012). Smart cities in perspectiv – a comparative European study by means of self-organizing maps. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 25(2), 229-246.
Lathan, C. E., & Maynard, A. (2019). Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2019. Retrieved from Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/.
Lee, J. H., Phaal, R., & Lee, S.-H. (2013). An integrated service-device-technology roadmap for smart city development. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 80(2), 286-306.
Lee, J. H., Phaal, R., & Lee, S. H. (2013). An integrated service-device-technology roadmap for smart city development. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 80, 286–306.
Lim, C., Kim, K.-J., & Maglio, P. P. (2018). Smart cities with big data: Reference models, challenges, and considerations. Cities, 82, 86-99.
Lindvall, O., & Kokaia, Z. (2006). Stem cells for the treatment of neurological disorders. Nature, 441(7097), 1094–1096.
Liu, Y., Yang, C., Jiang, L., Xie, S., & Zhang, Y. (2019). Intelligent edge computing for IoT-based energy management in smart cities. IEEE Network, 33(2), 111-117.
Lombardi, P., Giordano, S., Farouh, H., & Yousef, W. (2012). Modelling the Smart City Performance. Innovation:The European Journal of Social Science Research, 25(2), 137-149.
London, M. o. (2018). Culture for all Londoners. Retrieved from Greater London Authority: www.london.gov.uk.
Mabodi, M., Por mohammadi, M., Sadr mosavi, M., Rostayi, Sh. (2020). Analysis of Paradigm Shift Policies of Sustainable Urban Transportation (Case study: Tabriz Metropolis). Journal of spatial planning. 10(3), 23-46. (In Persian)
Mahdi zadeh, M. (2019). Investigating the relationship between smart city and sustainable development and the challenges of achieving a sustainable smart city. Shabak. 5(7), 119-128. (In Persian)
Mannermaa, M. (2004). Traps in futures thinking–and how to overcome them. Paper presented at the Thinking Creatively in Turbulent Times. Proceedings from the Annual Conference of the World Future Society.
Marsal-Llacuna, M. L., Colomer-Llina` s, J., & Mele´ndez-Frigola, J. (2015). Lessons in urban monitoring taken from sustainable and livable cities to better address the Smart Cities initiative. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 90, 611-622.
Martinz, J. G. (2019). Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2019. Retrieved from Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/.
Mehmood, Y., Ahmad, F., Yaqoob, I., Adnane, A., Imran, M., & Guizani, S. (2017). Internet of things based smart cities: Recent advances and challenges. IEEE Communications Magazine, 55(9), 16-24.
Mohanty, S. (2016). Everything You Wanted to Know About Smart Cities. IEEE Consumer Electronics Magazine, 5, 60-70.
Monfaredzadeh, T., & Krueger, R. (2015). Investigating social factors of sustainability in a smart city. Procedia Engineering, 118.
Moradi, Sh. (2019). Investigating the thematic course of smart city studies. Scientific Research Journal. 5(1), 139-160. (In Persian)
Mori, K., & Christodoulou, A. (2012). Review of Sustainability Indices and Indicators: Towards a New City Sustainability Index (CSI). Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 94–106.
Nassar, M. A., Luxford, L., Cole, P., Oatley, G., & Koutsakis, P. (2019). The Current and Future Role of Smart Street Furniture in Smart Cities. IEEE Communications Magazine, 57(6), 68-73.
Nation, u. (2019). trends of 2018-2019. Retrieved fromhttps://esa.un.org/desa-highlight-2018-2019/#chap_1.
Neirotti, P., De Marco, A., Cagliano, A. C., Mangano, G., & Scorrano, F. (2014). Current trends in Smart City initiatives: Some stylised facts. Cities, 38, 25-36.
O’day, E. (2019). Top 10 emerging technologies of 2019. Retrieved from Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/.
Park, E., Del Pobil, A. P., & Kwon, S. J. (2018). The role of Internet of Things (IoT) in smart cities: Technology roadmap-oriented approaches. Sustainability, 10(5).
Pawson, R., Wong, G., & Owen, L. (2011). Known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns: the predicament of evidence-based policy. American Journal of Evaluation, 32(4), 518-546.
Por ahmad, A., Ziari, K., Hatami nejad, H., Parsapashah abadi, Sh. (2018). The concept and features of smart city. Bagh nazar. 15(58), 5-26. (In Persian).
Por ghorban, Sh., Por ahmad, A., Darban astaneh, A., Zanganeh shahraki, S. (2020). Identifying Indicators of Urban Development Strategy for Resilience and Empowerment of Kish Island in the Horizon of 1417. Journal of Iran Futures Studies. 5(1), 189-217. (In Persian).
Post, M. (2013). Medical technology to Produce Food. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 94 (6), 1039–1041.
Rana, N. P., Luthra, S., Mangla, S. K., Islam, R., Roderick, S., & Dwivedi, Y. K. (2019). Barriers to the development of smart cities in Indian context. Information Systems Frontiers, 21(3), 503-525.
Rittel, H. W., & Webber, M. M. (1973). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy sciences, 4(2), 155-169.
Robinson, A. (2019). 6 Future Transportation Technologies That Will Change Transportation (and the Trucking Industry) Forever. Retrieved from https://cerasis.com/transportation-technologies/.
Rouleau, L., de Rond, M., Musca, G., Delgado, N. A., & Cruz, L. B. (2014). Multi-event ethnography: doing research in pluralistic settings. Journal of Organizational Ethnography.
Saleh, M. S., Althaibani, A., Esa, Y., Mhandi, Y., & Mohamed, A. A. (2015). Impact of clustering microgrids on their stability and resilience during blackouts. International Conference on Smart Grid and Clean Energy Technologies (ICSGCE), 195–200.
Segal, H. P. (2005). Technological utopianism in American culture: Syracuse University Press.
Silva, B. N., Khan, M., & Han, K. (2018). Towards sustainable smart cities: A review of trends, architectures, components, and open challenges in smart cities. Sustainable Cities and Society, 38.
 Solanas, A., Patsakis, C., Conti, M., Vlachos, I. S., Ramos, V., Falcone, F.,  Perrea, D. N. (2014). Smart health: a context-aware health paradigm within smart cities. IEEE Communications Magazine, 52(8), 74-81.
98. Stringer, E. T., & Aragón, A. O. (2020). Action research: Sage Publications, Incorporated.
Taheri damneh, M., Kazemi, M., Heydari darani, Z. (1398). Three Plausible Stories of the Future of Isfahan; Urban Foresight with a Scenario Approach. Journal of spatial planning. 10(3), 1-22. (In Persian)
Thirasupa, R., Saivichit, C., & Aswakul, C. (2020). Cloud Infrastructure Design Model for Green Smart City: Case Study of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. In Information Science and Applications (pp. 135-147): Springer.
Tibbits, S. (2014). 4D Printing: Multi-Material Shape Change. Architectural Design, 84, 116-121.
Turcu, C. (2013). Re-thinking Sustainability Indicators: Local Perspectives of Urban Sustainability. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 695–719.
UN. (2008). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database. Retrieved from http://esa.un.org/unup/.
UN. (2015). World urbanization prospects. United Nations Retrieved from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Report.pdf.
UN. (2016). World urbanization prospects. Retrieved from https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/CN/2016/CN.63.2016-Eng.pdf.
Wey, W.-M., & Ching, C.-H. (2018). The Application of Innovation and Catapult Research Techniques to Future Smart Cities Assessment Framework. Paper presented at the 2018 International Conference on System Science and Engineering (ICSSE).
Wey, W.-M., & Huang, W. (2019). An Integrated Approach For Building A Sustainable City Development Assessment Model. Paper presented at the Proceedings of International Academic Conferences.
Witt, T., Dumeier, M., & Geldermann, J. (2020). Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios. Journal of Cleaner Production, 242.
Woods, E., & Goldstein, N. (2014). Smart Technologies and Infrastructure for Energy,Water, Transportation, Buildings, and Government: Business Drivers, City and Supplier Profiles, Market Analysis, and Forecasts. Boulder, CO: Navigant Research.
Wu, Y.-J., & Chen, J.-C. (2021). A structured method for smart city project selection. International Journal of Information Management.
Wu, Y., Zhang, W., Shen, J., Mo, Z., & Peng, Y. (2018). Smart city with Chinese characteristics against the background of big data: Idea, action and risk. Journal of Cleaner Production, 173, 60-66.
Zackery, A. (2017). Designing an anticipatory system based on concepts and tools derived from the science of complexity, PhD Thesis. University of Tehran. (In Persian)
Zanella, A., Bui, N., Castellani, A., Vangelista, L., & Zorzi, M. (2014). Internet of things for smart cities. IEEE Internet of Things journal, 1(1), 22-32.