Determining the Key Factors Affecting the Freight Rail Transportation System in the 50-Year Horizon Using the Delphi

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor in Management, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

2 PhD Student in Industrial Management, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran,

3 Assistant Professor in Management, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

Abstract

Objective: The main goal of this research is to identify the factors influencing the future of the rail transportation system in the freight sector.
Method: In order to identify the factors affecting the rail transportation system in the freight sector, the present research uses a combination of library and field investigation, PESTEL model, Delphi method and SMART PLS for data analysis.
Findings: The three stages of this research seek to present the most important factors affecting the future of rail freight in Iran. In the first stage, all factors were identified. In the second stage, consensus was reached using the Delphi method in three consecutive periods. In the third stage, based on the opinion of experts and the use of SMARTPLS software, out of 168 factors identified, 76 factors are considered more important as the main effective factors in Iran's 50-year foresight which were classified into 8 main categories.
Conclusion: Identifying and planning factors affecting every industry is of particular importance. By identifying indicators, planners and policymakers will determine which indicators are important. The indicators also help policymakers and planners to move towards the main goals as well as investing and optimizing the most important factor.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 6, Issue 1 - Serial Number 10
September 2021
Pages 205-232

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