Future Scenarios of the Industry (Case Study: Medical Device Industry in Iran)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. in Futures Studies, Futures Studies Department, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Physics, Futures Studies Department, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Dental Biomaterials, Faculty of Dentistry, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran,

5 Associate Professor of Industrial Management, Futures Studies Department, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

Purpose: Medical Device Industry (MDI) has a special role in the health and economy of the country, but scattered and little domestic researches are devoted to it. This study was conducted with the aim of comprehensively identifying the factors, drivers, and key uncertainties affecting MDI and mapping its future scenarios; Because it is the necessity of programming to support domestic production of medical devices and remove its barriers.
Method: The research was conducted by a similar to Schwartz's critical uncertainty scenario method. By interviews and questionnaire tools in three Delphi rounds, required data were gathered and encoded by qualitative method. Here, the related experts were selected by snowball technique in a purposeful way until the stage of saturation of opinions.
Findings: In this paper, the main drivers affecting the next 20 years of the country's MDI were obtained. By identifying the three main axes; the lifting of the (economic) sanctions of US, the growth of R&D in companies, and the reduction of economic corruption, among the key drivers, based on their high importance and uncertainty, five scenarios; Prosperity, Dependence, Hope, Resistance, and Destruction were written.
Conclusion: Future scenarios for the technology-based industries such as MDI show the importance of the supportive requirements for the R&D pillar. In these scenarios, the continuation of economic sanctions increases the cost of economic activities in the industry and the reduction of economic corruption is faced with considerable uncertainty. Therefore, the three factors are the drivers for desired future scenarios of the MDI up to 2040.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 6, Issue 2 - Serial Number 11
February 2022
Pages 79-109

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