نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Purpose: In this study, while explaining the future status of the livability in the metropolis of Tehran, in order to determine the possible future situations, key factors and the relationships between them were analyzed and ranked.
Method: The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. In the first part, by reviewing the basics and extracting the most important key factors of flood governance, using the Delphi technique and consulting 30 experts, the indicators of consensus and certainty, priority and importance were evaluated. By determining the key factors and word parameters, a total of 51 key drivers for Word were prepared in Micmac software. In the final part and presentation of scenarios, cross-analysis was used using Scenario Wizard software.
Findings: Out of 2550 values calculated in the initial matrix of cross-effects, 826 were highly effective, 1058 were moderately effective, 666 were low-impact and 51 were highly effective. Assessing the impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that among the six main factors, urban environment (S) and urban housing services and infrastructure (S) are the most influential dimensions on the process of biological changes in the metropolis of Tehran.
Conclusion; From the 14 key drivers of air pollution variables (U1), the presence of vermin (U3), the living space of public spaces (U6), the exchange of views of city managers in decisions related to issues and crises (M4), the necessary awareness of citizens to participate in decision-making and decisions in times of crisis (M5), as the two-dimensional and influential variables have been most important. Also, out of 259 states on the scenario page, 155 states and 52.45% show the critical state, 85 states and 28.95% the desired state, and 55 states and 18.60% the static state.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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