Developing Future Scenarios for the Construction Industry based on New Technologies

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Student in Architecture, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Architectural Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Architecture, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

Abstract

Purpose: The future of the construction industry is increasingly influenced by new technologies. In order to adopt appropriate strategies in facing new technologies, it is necessary to know the possible futures of the construction industry. This research was done with the aim of explaining the technological uncertainties and compiling the future scenarios of the construction industry.
 Method: The research method is applied and was carried out with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, the library study was used to determine the technological drivers, then the Structural Analysis was used to explain the technological uncertainties, and finally, the Schwartz method was used to compile the scenarios. The statistical population is experts of construction industry.
Findings: Nine technological uncertainties affecting the future of the construction industry have been identified and for each of them, three states of decline, stagnation and progress have been considered. Data analysis by Scenario Wizard shows eight probable scenarios. The portfolio of scenarios including four groups of progress scenarios, towards progress, towards stagnation, and towards wane has been compiled.
Conclusion: In the progress scenario, the 89% of uncertainties have developed. In  towards progress, 56% of the factors are in the development status, which indicates the development of the technological factor application. In the stagnation scenario, no progress has been made in the application of uncertainties and they are in a static state. In towards wane, uncertainties have been placed in a situation of reduced use.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 7, Issue 2 - Serial Number 13
January 2023
Pages 181-202

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