Future Scenarios for the effects of new emerging movements on the Islamic Republic of Iran in the fifth decade

Pourvali Asl Gharibeh, Saeid; Eivazi, MohammadRahim

doi:10.30479/jfs.2023.17445.1407

Future Scenarios for the effects of new emerging movements on the Islamic Republic of Iran in the fifth decade

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ M.A. student, Shahed Uni.

² Faculty Member of Political Sciences and Futures Studies Department- Shahed University

10.30479/jfs.2023.17445.1407

Abstract

Abstract
Objective: In the present study, the subject of scenarios of the effect of new emerging movements on the Islamic Republic of Iran in the fifth decade of the Islamic Revolution was studied with the aim to Identify future studies about the most important social new emerging movements in Iranian society and the effects of these movements that will be happened in the fifth decade of the Islamic Revolution in form of the scenarios.
Method: Semi-structured interviews with elites as well as the new scenario method (critical uncertainties) were used to achieve the goals by document analysis research method.
Findings: two cases of drivers (Democracy Movement and New Lifestyle Movement) which were more important according to the elites, were selected by recognition of the drivers and the existing uncertainties which four scenarios were proposed.
Conclusion: In this resarch according to the uncertainties in relation to each of the drivers that two scenarios refers to making important and fundamental changes by drivers and two scenarios refers to the control of the consequences of these drivers by the system of the Islamic Republic.
Keywords: Emerging Movements, Scenario, Islamic Revolution, Islamic Republic.

Keywords

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