A Study of the Role of Prediction in Futures Studies

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. candidate in Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 Professor of Philosophy, faculty of literature and humanity, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

Purpose: This article consists of two parts. In the first part, we show the mean of prediction and its position in futures studies. In this regard, the opinions of various futurists regarding the role of prediction are examined, and then various types and forms of predicting are mentioned. In the next section, by dealing with Hempel and Oppenheim's deductive-nomological model, it is shown what attitude and approach this model has led to in futures studies.
Method: This article is descriptive. The data were collected in a library method and discussed and analyzed analytically.
Findings: Today, futures studies have moved from the era of positivist thinking (that is, accurate prediction and control of the future) to accepting multiple potential futures resulting from different perspectives and worldviews. Today, it is clear to everyone that accurate prediction of the future is practically impossible. Therefore, futures studies emphasizes discovering a wide range of alternative futures and choosing among them.
Conclusion: According to the findings of the research, it can be said that if accurate prediction were possible, we would no longer have the ability to shape the future and interfere in it. Therefore, the future is the output of action, intentionality, and unintended consequences of human actions. As a result, futures Studies is not only for definite prediction, but more for exploring future alternatives and choosing among them.

Keywords

References

Aligica, P. D. (2003). Prediction, explanation and the epistemology of future studies. Futures, 35(10), 1027-1040.
Aligica, P. D. (2009). Social predictions, institutional design and prestige loops: Richard Henshel’s contribution to futures studies. Futures, 41(3), 147-155.
Aligica, P. D., & Herritt, R. (2009). Epistemology, social technology, and expert judgement: Olaf Helmer's contribution to futures research. Futures, 41(5), 253-259.
Bardis, P. D. (1986). "Futurology and irenology: will the world be at peace in 2000.?" International Journal of World Peace 3, No. 2 (April-June): 1 1 7-1 24.
Bell, W. (2001). Futures studies comes of age: twenty-five years after the limits to growth. Futures, 33(1), 63-76.
Bell, W. (2009). Moral Discource, Objectivity, and the Future. Futura, 1(28), 43-57.
Bell, W., & Olick, J. K. (1989). An epistemology for the futures field: Problems and possibilities of prediction. Futures, 21(2), 115-135.
Bergman, A., Karlsson, J. C., & Axelsson, J. (2010). Truth claims and explanatory claims-An ontological typology of futures studies. Futures, 42(8), 857-865.
Blackman, C. (1994). From forecasting to informed choices. Futures, 26(1), 3.
Clardy, A. (2022). What can we know about the future? Epistemology and the credibility of claims about the world ahead. Foresight, 24 (1), 1-18.
Dator, J. (2019). Jim Dator: A noticer in time (pp. 7-16). Springer Nature.
Friedman, M. (1953). The Methodology ofPositive Economics. Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, pp. 8-9.
Gabor, D. (1963). Inventing the Future (1. publ. in Engl.).
Gabor, D. 1963. Inventing the Future. London: Secker & Warburg.
Hanson, N. R. (1959). On the symmetry between explanation and prediction. The Philosophical Review, 68(3), 349-358.
Helmer, O. (1983). Looking forward: A guide to futures research. Sage.
Helmer, O., & Rescher, N. (1959). On the epistemology of the inexact sciences. Management science, 6(1), 25-52.
Hempel, C. G. (1963). Explanation and prediction by covering laws. In B. Baumin (Ed.), Philosophy of science: The Delaware seminar (Vol. 1). New York: Wiley
Hempel, C. G. (1965). Aspects of scientific explanation (Vol. 1). New York: Free Press.
Hempel, C. G., & Oppenheim, P. (1948). Studies in the Logic of Explanation. Philosophy of science, 15(2), 135-175.
Henrici P., 1977, La futurologia perchè e come?, in P.C. Beltrao (ed.), Pensare il futuro, Roma, Edizioni Paoline, p. 28.
Henshel, R. L. (1978). Self-altering predictions. In J. Fowles (Ed.), Handbook of futures research (pp. 99-123). Westport, CT: Greenwood.
Henshel, R. L. (1993). Do self-fulfilling prophecies improve or degrade predictive accuracy? How sociology and economics can disagree and both be right. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 22(2), 85-104.
Kim, J. (1964). Inference, explanation, and prediction. The journal of philosophy, 61(12), 360-368.
Kreibich, R., Oertel, B., & Wolk, M. (2011). Futures studies and future-oriented technology analysis principles, methodology and research questions.
Kristóf, T. (2006). Is it possible to make scientific forecasts in social sciences? Futures, 38(5), 561-574.
Lenk, H. (1986). Zwischen Wissenschaftstheorie und Sozialwissenschaft. Suhrkamp-Taschenbuch-Verlag.
Lüdeke, M. K. (2013). Bridging qualitative and quantitative methods in foresight. Recent developments in foresight methodologies, 53-65.
MacHale, J. )1969(. the Future of the Future, Braziller, New York,.
Malaska, P. (2001). A futures research outline of a post-modern idea of progress. Futures, 33(3-4), 225-243.
Martino, J. P. (1987). The Gods of the Copybook Headings: A Caution to Forecasters. World Future Society Bulletin, 18(6), 6-11.
Masini, E. (1982). Reconceptualizing futures: A need and a hope. World Future Society Bulletin, 16(6), 1-8.
Masini, E. (1993). Future technology and its social implications, Word Futures Studies Federation Newsletter 14, No 1.
Masini, E. B. (2007). Futures studies from a human and social perspective. Knowing tomorrow.
Masini, E. (2006). Rethinking futures studies. Futures, 38(10), 1158-1168.
Masini, E. (2011). How to teach futures studies: Some experiences. Journal of Futures Studies, 15(4), 111-120.
McHale, J. (1978). The emergence of futures research' in Fowles, Jib (ed.), Handbook of Futures Research, Greenwood Press, London.
Melnikovas, A. (2018). Towards an explicit research methodology: Adapting research onion model for futures studies. Journal of futures Studies, 23(2), 29-44.
Moll, P. (1996). The thirst for certainty: futures studies in Europe and the United States. The knowledge base of Futures Studies, 1, 15-29.
Niiniluoto, I. (2001). Futures studies: science or art? Futures, 33(5), 371-377.
Patomäki, H. (2006). Realist ontology for futures studies. Journal of Critical Realism, 5(1), 1-31.
Paya, A. (2019). Weber, Popper and the Methodology of the Social Science: a Comparison from a Critical Rationalist Perspective. Iranian Journal of Sociology, 20(2), 26-64. (In Persian)
Piirainen, K. A., & Gonzalez, R. A. (2015). Theory of and within foresight—“What does a theory of foresight even mean?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 96, 191-201.
Reichenbach, H. (1951). The rise of scientific philosophy. Univ of California Press.
Rescher, N. (1958). On prediction and explanation. The British journal for the philosophy of science, 8(32), 281-290.
Rescher, N. (1998). Predicting the future: An introduction to the theory of forecasting. SUNY press.
Rescher, N. (1999). The Limits of Science: Revised Edition. University of Pittsburgh Pre.
Riner, R. D. (1998). The future as a sociocultural problem: a personal ethnohistory. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(3), 347-364.
Shala, E. (2018). Foresight and Social Epistemology. An Inquiry into the Epistemic Versatility of Futures Research and the Potential of a Socioepistemic Approach.
Sherden, W.A. (1998). The fortune sellers. The big business of buying and selling predictions. New York: John Wiley & Sons
Slaughter, R. A. (1999). Professional standards in futures work. Futures, 31(8), 835-851.
Strand, S. (1999). Forecasting the future: pitfalls in controlling for uncertainty. Futures, 31(3-4), 333-350.
Toulmin, S. (1963). Foresight and Understanding, Harper and Row, New York, New York.
Van der Duin, P. (2009). On applied science, prediction and contingency. Futures, 41(3), 194-196.
Wright, G. H. V. (2009). Determinism and Knowledge of the Future. Futura 28 (2009): 1.
Amara, R. (1981). The Futures Field: Searching for Boundaries and Definition. The Futurist, 15, 25-29.
Nováky, E., & Sáfrányné Gubik, A. (2018). Handling Uncertainty in Futures Studies
.

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics