A Study of the Role of Prediction in Futures Studies

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. candidate in Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 Professor of Philosophy, faculty of literature and humanity, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

Purpose: This article consists of two parts. In the first part, we show the mean of prediction and its position in futures studies. In this regard, the opinions of various futurists regarding the role of prediction are examined, and then various types and forms of predicting are mentioned. In the next section, by dealing with Hempel and Oppenheim's deductive-nomological model, it is shown what attitude and approach this model has led to in futures studies.
Method: This article is descriptive. The data were collected in a library method and discussed and analyzed analytically.
Findings: Today, futures studies have moved from the era of positivist thinking (that is, accurate prediction and control of the future) to accepting multiple potential futures resulting from different perspectives and worldviews. Today, it is clear to everyone that accurate prediction of the future is practically impossible. Therefore, futures studies emphasizes discovering a wide range of alternative futures and choosing among them.
Conclusion: According to the findings of the research, it can be said that if accurate prediction were possible, we would no longer have the ability to shape the future and interfere in it. Therefore, the future is the output of action, intentionality, and unintended consequences of human actions. As a result, futures Studies is not only for definite prediction, but more for exploring future alternatives and choosing among them.

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