Investigating and prioritizing the key success factors of strategic foresight in Iranian industries and organizations

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University,Qazvin, Iran

2 PHD in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor and director of the Futures Studies Department of the Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army.

4 Ph.D student of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to identify and prioritize key success factors in strategic foresight process including pre-foresight, foresight and post-foresight and focuses on industries and organizations active in Iran.
Method: This study is an applied research based on descriptive and analytical method. First, in a library-based manner, and considering the three stages of the strategic foresight process, 43 factors were identified as contributing to the success of this process (pre-foresight: 14 factors; foresight: 16 factors; post-foresight: 13 factors). Subsequently, 68 experts were selected to prioritize identified factors using the Criterion-based Selection Method and their votes were collected on a five-point Likert scale using a closed questionnaire tool.
Findings: The findings of the study, based on the t-student test, confirmed the effect of these factors on the success of the strategic foresight process. The values of the "coefficient of variation" also indicate: In the pre-foresight, balancing exploration and exploitation (0.260), setting up workshops (0.227) and trust building (0.228) are the most important factors. At the foresight stage, identifying and paying attention to milestones (0.179), designing what-if questions (0.189), and focusing on second- and third-party outcomes (0.222) are the most important factors. Finally, in the post-foresight phase, determining the fundamental planning framework (0.193), monitoring and feedback (0.220), and investing in an unlikely idea (0.220) are the most important factors.
Conclusion: Achieving key factors influencing the strategic foresight process can help managers and planners optimally allocate resources and time to design and implement this process successfully.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 9, Issue 2 - Serial Number 12
February 2025
Pages 32-61

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