Future Study of the Effect of Migration from the Central Plateau to Guilan Province on the Implementation of Comprehensive Plans and Urban and Rural Development

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture & Urban Planning, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU), Qazvin, Iran

2 Master of Urban & Regional Planning, School of Architecture and Environmental Design, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU), Qazvin, Iran.

4 Ph.D. Candidate of Urban Planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

Abstract

Objective: Currently, we are facing the migration of people from the central plateau of Iran to the northern provinces due to the drought phenomenon. The current problems are caused by the lack of knowledge of the future. To put it more clearly, current crises and problems are the most justified reason to think about the future. For this reason, the current research aims to study the future of the impact of migration to Gilan province.
Research methodology: In this research, the method of mutual effects analysis has been used. For this purpose, at first, a questionnaire was designed to obtain the events related to the subject under study.
Findings: By refining and summarizing the questionnaires of the first stage, 14 events were identified. Then another questionnaire was designed and the previous steps were repeated to measure the mutual effects. Finally, by analyzing and categorizing the events, the classified areas in the Cartesian map were defined, as the influence and dependence of the mutual effects of the events.
Conclusion: The Cartesian map of the impact and dependence of the mutual effects of 14 events studied in this research showed that 4 events are in the category of dominant and decisive events. 6 events are grouped in the category of key events and relays. 2 events are grouped in the category of neighboring events (independent variables), 2 events in the category of regulating and intermediate events, and 2 other events in the category of resulting and dominated events.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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