Identifying the development drivers of Iran's petrochemical industry and drawing future scenarios

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Technology Management, Management, Islamic Azad University Qom Branch, Qom, Iran

2 PhD Student in Technology Management, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch

Abstract

Objective: The current research was conducted with the aim of identifying the drivers affecting the development of the petrochemical industry in Iran. In terms of practical purpose, this research is a combined method that includes two main stages of library studies and validation by experts, at the exploratory level and based on the future research and scenario planning approach.
Method: In the present study, propellants were identified using library studies, and after identification, they were approved by experts. The target community of the research was academic researchers and experts and senior managers of the petrochemical industry who had scientific and practical experiences in the field of futurology. The snowball sampling method was also used for sampling. The critical drivers were identified with Mic Mac software based on the method of cross-effects analysis. Next, the future of the petrochemical industry in Iran was drawn in the form of 16 scenarios based on the Scenario Wizard software, based on the slope method.
Findings: The results of the research indicate that 40 drivers effective on the development of the petrochemical industry were identified. Finally, based on the key drivers, 16 plausible scenarios were investigated and their importance was determined.
Conclusion: The scenarios that have more weight are: sustainable development, adoption of new technologies, digital transformation, development of emerging markets and climate change and its effects. At the end, suggestions and solutions have been proposed to face the challenges and take advantage of the future opportunities of the petrochemical industry.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1 - Serial Number 12
September 2024
Pages 238-369

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