نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشگاه اصفهان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
In principle, policymakers do not pay enough attention to the long-term consequences of their policy choices or lack the ability to reflect on the various possible future states of the world and how to achieve or avoid them. Government decisions with poor foresight will cause harm to society. On the other hand, it should be noted that strategic foresight has nothing to do with predicting the future. The growing need to deal with the pressures of short-term policy on long-term decisions and issues related to long-term decision-making and wide-ranging intergovernmental justice has necessitated such futuristic research. The aim of this study is to design and institutionalize foresight in governance systems to provide the logic of intervention and the basic hypotheses of the risks associated with it and possible solutions. This study argues that futurism activities face three important, interconnected, and enduring challenges, including paying attention to the value of futurism, ensuring that policy-making processes are properly integrated with futurism activities, and maintaining They are attracting the attention of policymakers and their senior advisers. Horizontal scanning, trend analysis, trend impact analysis, interaction analysis, scenario analysis and Delphi method are among the widely used methods in conducting applied research. Research has shown that while strategic foresight provides a useful tool for navigating unexpected realms, it alone cannot guarantee wise decision-making for policies and other human skills and characteristics.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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