نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه پژوهشی سیاست فناوری و نوآوری، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران
2 عضو هیئت علمی پژوهشکده سیاستگذاری علم، فناوری و صنعت، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران
3 کارشناسی‌ارشد آینده‌پژوهی. آموزش عالی طلوع مهر قم. قم.ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Objective: Iran's presence in a geopolitical region and its proximity to some countries that do not have access to open waters and its location on the path of international corridors, the development of transportation, along with the presence of tourist, cultural and social attractions, are among the potentials that make the creation of high-speed rail transport technologies one of the primary necessities of sustainable development in the country. Based on global experience, the rail transport system has special advantages over other transport systems in terms of energy consumption, economy, environmental damage, passenger transport speed, transported cargo volume and safety. This research was conducted with the aim of developing future scenarios for high-speed rail transport in the country.
Method: In this study, using futures research methods, importance/uncertainty matrix, structural analysis, MICMAC cross-analysis, key factors affecting the future technologies of the high-speed rail transportation industry were identified, and then technological options were obtained through interviews and consensus of experts and the analyses carried out, and scenarios for the future of this industry were developed using the GBN method.
Findings: Seventeen effective factors were identified, and by analyzing the MICMAC software, two key factors were finally obtained: government support in providing budget and sanctions. Key factors and technological options were reviewed in the expert panel, and based on that, scenarios for the future of this industry were developed.
Conclusion: In this study, four scenarios were obtained, including: 1- Thoroughbred, 2- Unbridled, 3- Tamed, 4- Miniature Horse. Given these scenarios, if the system has a long-term supportive view of technology localization, even despite sanctions, the country can reach a position that is in the hands of a small number of countries, which will have financial benefits and national authority for the country.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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