Future scenarios of Iran's high-speed rail transport technologies

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Technology &; Innovation Policy Studies Dep., National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran.

2 Faculty member of the Research Institute for Science, Technology and Industry Policy (RISTIP) - Sharif University of Technology (SUT).

3 Master of Future Studies. Higher education Tolo Mehr Qom. Qom.iran

Abstract

Objective: Iran's presence in a geopolitical region and its proximity to some countries that do not have access to open waters and its location on the path of international corridors, the development of transportation, along with the presence of tourist, cultural and social attractions, are among the potentials that make the creation of high-speed rail transport technologies one of the primary necessities of sustainable development in the country. Based on global experience, the rail transport system has special advantages over other transport systems in terms of energy consumption, economy, environmental damage, passenger transport speed, transported cargo volume and safety. This research was conducted with the aim of developing future scenarios for high-speed rail transport in the country.
Method: In this study, using futures research methods, importance/uncertainty matrix, structural analysis, MICMAC cross-analysis, key factors affecting the future technologies of the high-speed rail transportation industry were identified, and then technological options were obtained through interviews and consensus of experts and the analyses carried out, and scenarios for the future of this industry were developed using the GBN method.
Findings: Seventeen effective factors were identified, and by analyzing the MICMAC software, two key factors were finally obtained: government support in providing budget and sanctions. Key factors and technological options were reviewed in the expert panel, and based on that, scenarios for the future of this industry were developed.
Conclusion: In this study, four scenarios were obtained, including: 1- Thoroughbred, 2- Unbridled, 3- Tamed, 4- Miniature Horse. Given these scenarios, if the system has a long-term supportive view of technology localization, even despite sanctions, the country can reach a position that is in the hands of a small number of countries, which will have financial benefits and national authority for the country.
 
 

Keywords

References

ell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies; History, Purposes, and Knowledge New Jersey: Transaction.
Choi, S., Park., H., Kang, D., Lee, J. Y., Kim, K. (2012). “An SAO-based text mining approach to bulding a technology tree for technology planning”, Expert Systems with Applications. Vol. 39, No. 13, Pp. 11443–11455.
Helmer, O. (2009). Oral History Interview with Olaf Helmer. conducted by Kaya Tolon, Deposited in the Olaf Helmer Folder at the University of Southern California Archives.
T, Khalil. (2000). "Management of Technology: The Key to Competitiveness and Wealth Creation".
Rounsevell,Mark D.A,. &Marc J.Metzger. (2010). Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. John Wiley & Sons, p. 606-619.
Schoemaker, P. J. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan management review, 36(2), 25-50.
Urbanski, P. (2022). Review of freight high speed railway (HSR). Rail Vehicles/Pojazdy Szynowe. 2022, 1-2, 49-61. https://doi.org/10.53502/RAIL-152144.
Watson, Inara. (2021). High-Speed Railway. Chapter in Encyclopedia . July 2021Encyclopedia 1(3):665-688. DOI: 10.3390/encyclopedia1030053.
 
Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 9, Issue 2 - Serial Number 12
February 2025
Pages 74-109

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics