نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Purpose: Technology foresight is a critical strategic approach in innovation management and technology development, serving as an essential tool for analyzing and predicting future technological trends. However, the diversity of foresight methods and the lack of a comprehensive framework for selecting the most suitable method pose significant challenges. This study introduces an innovative framework based on the integration of the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and the Combined Compromise Solution (CoCoSo) to provide, for the first time, a comprehensive approach for selecting technology foresight methods.
Method: This research is applied in purpose and quantitative in nature, employing a descriptive approach for data collection and analysis. Initially, a literature review identified 12 primary foresight methods and 8 key evaluation criteria. The criteria were weighed using the BWM, and the methods were prioritized using the CoCoSo technique. Data were collected through questionnaires from 10 experts in the provinces of Tehran, Alborz, and Qazvin during the winter of 2024.
Results: The findings indicate that accuracy and flexibility are the most critical criteria for selecting technology foresight methods. Additionally, scenario planning and the Delphi method were identified by experts as the most suitable approaches for technology foresight.
Conclusion: Selecting an appropriate technology foresight method is vital for organizations to effectively address the challenges and opportunities arising from rapid technological changes. The proposed framework, emphasizing key criteria and integrating BWM and CoCoSo, enables organizations to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of their predictions and adapt to rapid technological advancements.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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