نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی صنایع و آیندهپژوهی، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران
2 کارشناسی ارشد آینده پژوهی دانشگاه اصفهان، گروه مهندسی صنایع و آیندهپژوهی، اصفهان، ایران،
چکیده
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Objective: Scenario planning is a systematic approach of anticipating alternative futures. In recent years, it has garnered increasing attention as a tool for organizations to navigate uncertainty and make strategic decisions. This scoping review examines the current state of knowledge on scenario planning by exploring its objectives, methodologies, and applications.
Method: Twenty-six articles published between 1990 and 2023 were selected from a comprehensive search of the Scopus database . Through a meticulous review of each article, key information, including definitions, methods, advantages, disadvantages, and types of scenarios presented in the literature, was extracted to identify prevailing patterns and trends in this field.
Results: The findings reveal that scenario planning is employed for diverse purposes, including strategic decision-making, risk management, and the exploration of future complex systems. This review also identifies a wide range of methodological approaches, encompassing qualitative methods (e.g., workshops, expert elicitation) and quantitative methods (e.g., modeling, simulation). The applications of scenario planning span various domains, such as business strategy, public policy, and sustainability.
Conclusion: Overall, this scoping review highlights the versatility and value of scenario planning as a tool for organizations and researchers to prepare for an uncertain future. Therefore, this paper provides a concise and comprehensive overview of the current state of scenario planning using the scoping review method.
)