Futures Studies of Energy Imbalance and Its Implications for Regional Energy Security: A Scenario-Based Approach in Yazd Province

Naderi, Ali; Khoshnevis, Kamal; Rafieian, Mohsen

doi:10.30479/jfs.2026.21794.1621

Futures Studies of Energy Imbalance and Its Implications for Regional Energy Security: A Scenario-Based Approach in Yazd Province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Urbanism, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

10.30479/jfs.2026.21794.1621

Abstract

Objective: Energy security, as one of the pillars of sustainable development, faces serious challenges in Iran due to its heavy dependence on fossil resources, international sanctions, and imbalances in energy supply and demand. This study aims to explore the future of energy imbalance and its implications for energy security to forecast future scenarios and propose strategies that guide Yazd Province toward sustainable energy security and reduced regional disparities.
Method: The research adopts a mixed descriptive-analytical and foresight approach, utilizing data from official reports of the Statistical Center of Iran and provincial documents. Analytical tools such as MATLAB software and linear regression are employed for trend analysis and scenario writing.
Results: Analyzing eight-year trends indicates that Yazd Province faces energy imbalance and an uneven distribution of energy production and consumption. Investment in renewable energy sources and strengthening regional cooperation can enhance energy security and reduce disparities.
Conclusion: Energy imbalance poses a threat to regional security that will intensify without sustainable measures. The development of technology and balanced energy distribution will improve resilience and energy security.

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