Scenario Planning in Organization: Scoping Review of recent researches

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Industrial Engineering and Futures Studies, Faculty of Engineering, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

2 Futures Studies Group, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, University of Isfahan, City Name Isfahan, Country Name Iran

10.30479/jfs.2025.21398.1606

Abstract

Objective: Scenario planning is a systematic approach of anticipating alternative futures. In recent years, it has garnered increasing attention as a tool for organizations to navigate uncertainty and make strategic decisions. This scoping review examines the current state of knowledge on scenario planning by exploring its objectives, methodologies, and applications.
Method: Twenty-six articles published between 1990 and 2023 were selected from a comprehensive search of the Scopus database . Through a meticulous review of each article, key information, including definitions, methods, advantages, disadvantages, and types of scenarios presented in the literature, was extracted to identify prevailing patterns and trends in this field.
Results: The findings reveal that scenario planning is employed for diverse purposes, including strategic decision-making, risk management, and the exploration of future complex systems. This review also identifies a wide range of methodological approaches, encompassing qualitative methods (e.g., workshops, expert elicitation) and quantitative methods (e.g., modeling, simulation). The applications of scenario planning span various domains, such as business strategy, public policy, and sustainability.
Conclusion: Overall, this scoping review highlights the versatility and value of scenario planning as a tool for organizations and researchers to prepare for an uncertain future. Therefore, this paper provides a concise and comprehensive overview of the current state of scenario planning using the scoping review method.

References

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Journal of Iran Futures Studies
Volume 9, Issue 2 - Serial Number 12
February 2025
Pages 242-264

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