Scenario Planning for the Future of the Iranian Graphic Design Industry

Ravanjoo, Ahad; Hazarian, Mohsen

doi:10.30479/jfs.2025.21831.1624

Scenario Planning for the Future of the Iranian Graphic Design Industry

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Ahad Ravanjoo ¹
Mohsen Hazarian ²

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Graphic Arts, Shushtar Art Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

² Master's student in Visual Communication, Shushtar Art Faculty, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

10.30479/jfs.2025.21831.1624

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to conduct a futures study of the Iranian graphic design sector with a horizon up to 1414 (2035), outlining plausible scenarios in light of technological and social transformations.
Method : The research uses a mixed-methods approach (qualitative–quantitative). In the qualitative phase, a literature review and semi-structured interviews with experts identified key drivers and critical uncertainties, with data analyzed through thematic analysis and qualitative coding. In the quantitative phase, supplementary data were gathered via an online questionnaire from 20 active designers and specialists, and analyzed descriptively to validate and enhance the qualitative findings.
Findings: Two critical uncertainties were identified: the speed of technological transformation and the level of policy support. The intersection of these uncertainties produced four alternative scenarios: Digital Creative Leap, Conservative Support, Risky Free Market, and Traditional Stagnation. Comparing these scenarios highlighted that the future of graphic design in Iran is strongly influenced by supportive policies, technological infrastructure, and the alignment of the educational system with emerging needs.
Conclusion: The findings emphasize that the future of this sector is not deterministic or linear but shaped by multiple pathways, with decisions made today in policy, academia, and industry playing a key role. The study’s importance lies in identifying drivers and developing diverse scenarios that allow for flexible planning and risk reduction for stakeholders. Thus, the results provide a basis for designing sustainable actions and long-term strategies for the development of graphic design in Iran.

Main Subjects